It’s not just OK to be smart, Pharo rewards you for it.
So far in our Thorchain series, we’ve discussed:
- Wisdom of the Thorchain crowd: Pharo gives weight to your cents, two, three, millions or more… literally.
- So you believe Thorchain is vulnerable… How vulnerable?: Embrace your inner Loki, seek chaos and follow your instincts wherever they may lead: the source, the market, or the code.
We have established a group of thousands of believers who want to collaborate, protect the fiscal solvency of Thorchain users, and who have developed opinions regarding the rate of failure or hack rate. Now that I’ve 1) evaluated, 2) developed an opinion, and 3) staked my PHRO, what happens when Thorchain is hacked before February 2023? What if it isn’t? Can I know what my reward will be? Could I get the full $25K?
Since no one is staking real money, this isn’t mainnet code, the Pharo phounders will verify the event happened… if we don’t read it in the news first, I’m sure people will bring it to our attention, they’ll want their slice of the $25K after all ;)
So what’s your slice of the pie?
Well, the least you can win is 1 / #user_estimates, so with one-thousand estimates your airdrop would be 1/1000th of $25K, which is $25 or 1K $PHRO tokens. This would happen if EVERYONE’s estimate was EXACTLY identical. Not likely to happen.
The most you could win is around ~95% of the pie, which is ~$24K or 950K $PHRO tokens. This happens if you’re the lone wolf that guesses EXACTLY right and everyone else really missed the mark. Again, not likely.
These scenarios, these edge-cases, bookend the spectrum of possibilities. Reality is somewhere between who’s right, the majority or the lone wolf, but wherever the chips may fall the rewards are distributed proportional to their statistical distance from the event reality (find us on discord if you want to dive down that rabbit hole).
This Thorchain experiment tests whether people incentivized to find the truth will find the truth… or at least a realistic estimate of where the truth could be. Is the incentive enough? $25K is a nice pie, but a small pie for DeFi. Once the TVL is real, people will try to game the system, Nate Chastain just did with NFTs. Mo’ money mo’ problems. So what to do? Don’t fear, we’ve thought about bad actors, and in short: we’ll all have to eat our own dogfood to play in the markets — stay tuned.